Research Summary
Hedges are Regime-Dependent,
not Automatic.
Our 2026 research project debunks the "static hedge" narrative. Neither asset provides mechanical protection against Singapore's CPI. Instead, the results reveal assets that respond to global liquidity and currency stress.
Currency Bridge
Gold performance is explained by USD/SGD volatility, acting as a defensive stabilizer during macro stress.
Sentiment Risk
Bitcoin acts as a liquidity sponge. Movements track sentiment indices rather than inflation fundamentals.
CPI Independence
A negligible statistical link. Both assets are independent of local Consumer Price Index fluctuations.
Key Analytical Findings
Quantitative insights from the finalized project analysis.
Defensive Stabilizer
Gold functions as a hedge against macro-uncertainty and currency devaluation. In the Singaporean context, it protects capital when the SGD weakens against the USD.
Actionable Framework
Our project concludes that strategy depends on two factors: Macro Stress and Sentiment. Use this tool to simulate the recommended allocation bias.
Neutral Regime
Indicators are balanced. Maintain baseline diversification. Focus on currency movements and global liquidity signals.
1. Stagflation
High stress + weak currency. Gold becomes the primary pillar for capital preservation.
2. Policy Easing
Rising sentiment + low stress. Bitcoin acts as a liquidity sponge for tactical growth.
3. Volatility
Mixed signals. The project prioritizes dynamic regime identification over static holding.